I'm no oddsmaker, but I did sit down with a couple of maps and a pencil and did some math on state decisions regarding what governors are saying -or already have said -about the Medicaid Expansion (related articles). Here are my findings so far:
1. Among the 32 governors that have made a decision about the expansion--a decision that must pass muster with state legislatures--21 have come out in favor, with 11 against. Just about 2-to-1 in favor so far.
|Favor Expansion||Against Expansion|
|6 Republicans||11 Republicans|
|15 Democrats||0 Democrats|
|21 states||11 states|
2. Though the Affordable Care Act, which includes the Medicaid Expansion, passed without a single Republican vote in the US Senate or the US House, Republican governors are clearly reconsidering their party's opposition to the ACA on a state-by-state basis. Six have decided to support the Expansion so far.
|New Mexico||Susana Martinez|
|North Dakota||Jack Dalrymple|
Interestingly, once you leave behind the seven Deep South states (Texas, Oklahoma, Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, Georgia, South Carolina) whose Republican governors together oppose the Expansion, a majority of the remaining 10 Republican governors (see list of six above) who've made a decision have decided to support the Expansion, with just four governors recommending opposition (Idaho, South Dakota, Pennsylvania, and Maine). Of these "against" states, Pennsylvania strikes me as a surprise. So far, it is the only big, rust-belt state with a Republican Governor (Tom Corbett) that did not support the Expansion. Pennsylvania has voted Democratic at the presidential level since 1988 and, as a state, has always maintained high-quality state services. Corbett's decision cannot sit well with all of those working Democrats who must have crossed over to narrowly give him the gubernatorial win.
3. Of the 18 remaining state governors who have not committed to a position on the Medicaid Expansion, 11 of these undecided governors are Republican, six are Democratic, and one is an independent - Rhode Island's Lincoln Chafee. Here's the breakout: