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Medicaid expansion: Official tally

February 21, 2013
by Dennis Grantham, Editor-in-Chief
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Prediction: Medicaid Expansion will be supported by 34 states, including a significant number of Republicans.

In a blog on February 14, I predicted that a 2-to-1 plurality of 34 state governors would ultimately recommend the Medicaid Expansion and provided a current tally of their recommendations. Of course, the difficulty inherent in that number is that 30 governors are Republicans and initially, Republicans came out united in their opposition to the Medicaid Expansion, led by six Governors in the very conservative South--Rick Perry (Texas), Bobby Jindal (Louisiana), Phil Bryant (Mississippi), Robert Bentley (Alabama), Nathan Deal (Georgia), and Nikki Haley (South Carolina). These six southern Republican governors opposed to the Medicaid expansion were joined by Oklahoma's Mary Fallin, Idaho's Butch Otter, Iowa's Terry Branstad, Maine's Paul LePage, and South Dakota's Dennis Daugaard within a matter of months -11 GOP governors standing united in recommending against the expansion. 

On the other side of the aisle, 13 Democratic governors announced their support of the Medicaid Expansion: Jerry Brown (California), Colorado's John Hickenlooper (Colorado), Dan Malloy (Connecticut), Jack Markell (Delaware), Neil Abercrombie (Hawaii), Pat Quinn (Illinois), Martin O'Malley (Maryland), Deval Patrick (Massachusetts), Mark Dayton (Minnesota), Jay Nixon (Missouri), Steve Bullock (Montana), Peter Shumlin (Vermont), and Jay Inslee (Washington).

Then, the party lines started to break down. Since this initial 11-13 split along party lines, there has been a lot of consideration and debate on both sides, leading to some surprising decisions: 

State Governor (Party) Position
Nevada Brian Sandoval (R) For
New Mexico Susana Martinez (R) For
North Dakota Jack Dalrymple (R) For
Arizona Jan Brewer (R) For
Ohio John Kasich (R) For
Michigan Rick Snyder (R) For
Pennsylvania Tom Corbett (R) Against
Florida Rick Scott (R) For
New Hampshire Maggie Hassan (D) For
Nebraska Dave Heineman (R) Against
Indiana Mike Pence (R) Against
Wisconsin Scott Walker (R) Against
North Carolina Pat McCrory (R) Against
Virginia Bob McDonnell (R) Against

As shown above, six more Republican governors joined the opponents of Medicaid expansion, while seven Republicans (plus one more Democrat) joined the governors who support the Expansion.  This puts the tally at 21 for Expansion and 17 against, so for now, my prediction of 34 governors in favor is shot. The breakdown by party of those who have taken a position so far is is as follows:

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Dennis Grantham

Dennis Grantham

@BH_dgrantham

www.behavioral.net